Category: Insights

WASHINGTON, D.C. – Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS) announced today that Cailin Schmeer, Patrice Smith, and Michael Sargent have joined the firm as directors. 

“I’m thrilled to welcome Cailin, Patrice, and Michael to HPS,” said Tucker Warren, a partner at HPS. “Their experience working in the public and private sectors on some of the most pressing issues of our time will be of great benefit to our clients and to the HPS family at large.”

Cailin joins HPS from the U.S. Department of Treasury, where she served as the chief speechwriter to Secretary Steven T. Mnuchin and a director of public affairs, focusing on the Paycheck Protection Program, the Financial Stability Oversight Council, and other domestic finance programs. Prior to joining the Treasury, Cailin spent several years at the Pentagon in both policy and public affairs roles. She served as the chief of staff for special operations and low-intensity conflict policy and as a public affairs advisor. At the Department of Defense, she regularly advised four star-equivalent civilians on media relations, message development, and policy rollouts.

“I am incredibly excited to work alongside the highly talented team of strategists and communicators at HPS,” Cailin said. “Our clients face complex challenges, and I am eager to help solve them by applying my executive branch experience to the firm’s analytical approach to communications and public policy.”

Prior to joining HPS, Patrice served as a communications director in the U.S. House of Representatives. Patrice also worked in the office of U.S. Senator Tim Scott (R–SC), where she served as a speechwriter and media relations liaison. Additionally, she has broad experience with public relations and public affairs agencies in southern California and Washington, D.C., working on projects involving a range of clients, including Bill Conti, Hewlett-Packard (HP), Shell Oil Company, Genesis USA, Federal Realty Investment Trust, CNN commentators, and others.

“I am excited to join a great group of policy-minded communicators in Washington,” said Patrice. “After spending time on the Hill, it is a great experience to learn how things operate outside of the Capitol. I look forward to growing with HPS and learning from my colleagues.”

Michael joins HPS from Madrus LLC, a strategic transportation and infrastructure consulting firm, where he served as director of policy and research. There, he spearheaded research, strategic advisory, and policy development projects for Madrus’ clients, including investors, corporations, and governments. He also spent over four years in various economic policy roles at the Heritage Foundation, most recently as a policy analyst leading the Foundation’s research and advocacy efforts for transportation and infrastructure issues. In addition, he has worked on and advised several political campaigns.

“HPS’ unique analytical approach to public affairs not only provides immense value to its clients, but also improves the quality of public policy debates,” said Michael. “I am thrilled to join HPS’ leading team of policy and communications professionals.”

Overall economic sentiment fell for a third time in four readings, as the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) dropped 0.5 points to 50.1. This week’s reading marks the breaking of two records: Confidence in the job market reached a record high for the second reading in a row (rising 4.1 points to 59.0) even as confidence in the housing market reached a record low, dropping 3.1 points to 38.4.

Although vaccination rates continue to increase and states gradually begin to ease pandemic-related restrictions, the country’s economic recovery faces a variety of headwinds. April jobs numbers released last week landed well below expectations as the unemployment rate increased to 6.1%, while expectations of future inflation reached their highest point since 2013. In addition to record-low confidence in the housing market, the other ESI indicators to fall this reading were:

 – Confidence in personal finances dropped 1.4 points to 57.4

– Confidence in the overall US economy dropped 1.3 points to 52.0

– Confidence in making a major purchase dropped 0.9 points to 43.6

The ESI’s three-day moving average began this reading’s two-week stretch on April 28 at 51.9, rapidly dropping to its two-week low of 48.7 on April 30. It then picked up rapidly, peaking at 52.5 on May 3 before gradually dropping again and closing out the session at 50.6 on May 11.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures. For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

Over the past two years, a lot of wonderful guests have come on the HPS Insights podcast, but it is safe to say few have the military, government, and business experience of Mike Hayes. The former Commander of SEAL Team TWO stopped by the virtual HPS Insights studio to discuss his new book, “Never Enough: A Navy SEAL Commander on Living a Life of Excellence, Agility, and Meaning.” 

In the book, and throughout the conversation, Mike shared the lessons learned through his experience as a U.S. Navy SEAL, including his time leading a two thousand–person Special Operations Task Force in Southeastern Afghanistan. He talked through how he has applied those lessons to his time working in the Bush and Obama White Houses and in the private sector at Bridgewater Associates, Cognizant Technology, and now as the Chief Digital Transformation Officer at VMWare. 

Many of the lessons Mike shares with readers are familiar to those practiced at HPS, including:

– Pushing yourself outside your comfort zone to increase your knowledge and abilities

– Prioritizing agility in the roles each of us plays on the team, knowing when to lead and when to follow

– Learning how to think, not what to think

In response to questions about his advice to get comfortable with being uncomfortable, Mike shared, “Leaning into the hard things is where the growth comes from. In the SEALs, we certainly move to the problem. It’s what I’ve also seen done sometimes really well in Washington, and sometimes less than well. Failure is only failure if you fail and don’t learn.”

Mike wrote this book not only to share these lessons but to raise awareness and funding for The 1162 Foundation—named after the date President Kennedy commissioned the SEALs—which supports families in the special operations community who have lost loved ones. 

To learn more about Mike’s experiences and the advice he offers readers, listen to the full episode and subscribe to HPS Insights on your favorite podcast service. 

Economic sentiment ended its month-long slump, rising 1.3 points to 50.6 over the past two weeks, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). Confidence in the job market boosted overall confidence as it continued its meteoric rise, increasing 4.2 points to 54.9—the highest level in the ESI’s history.

With over half of the U.S. population having received at least one vaccine shot, jobless claims reaching a pandemic low of only 547,000 last Thursday, and COVID-19 infection rates holding steady, consumers displayed a rising level of confidence over the past two weeks. In addition to record-setting job confidence, faith in the overall economy rose 2.2 points to 53.3. The other indicators were more mixed:

 – Confidence in personal finances rose 3.6 points to 58.8, its second highest reading during the pandemic.

– Confidence in the tight housing market continued to drop, falling 2.4 points to 41.5, its lowest level in over a year.

– Consumers’ confidence in making a major purchase fell slightly from its previous six-month high, declining one point to 44.5.

The moving average began on April 14 at 49.5 and dropped to its low on April 21 at 48.0. It then shot upwards, peaking on April 24 at 53.0 before declining slightly and closing the reading on April 27 at 51.9.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures. For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

The past year made clear that America’s 50 states have different priorities — both from each other and from the federal government. From travel restrictions to return-to-office guidelines, the pandemic and the ensuing road to recovery have elevated the necessity for businesses and lawmakers to navigate varying state and federal guidelines.

As of last night, governors of all 50 states, with the exception of Ohio governor Mike DeWine, have conveyed their budget and legislative priorities to their constituents and legislatures through state of the state or inaugural addresses. Ahead of President Biden’s first address to the joint session of Congress, we analyzed these speeches to understand conversations taking place outside of Washington — where themes converge, focuses diverge, and promises for recovery are made.

Hot issues at the national level such as immigration and tech competition received little attention in state of the state addresses. Instead, governors focused more on education and budgets, topics of more local concern. The pandemic remains top of mind, as governors try to cast an optimistic outlook of economic reopening and recovery: collectively, governors mentioned vaccines 20 times more than quarantine.

While partisan and regional differences are expected, to paint states as simply divided by red and blue or north and south would be an oversimplification. Oftentimes, priorities discussed in governors’ state of the state addresses are consistent across states and years. Both in 2020 and 2021, all governors mentioned the economy and education, while the vast majority of speeches included mentions of healthcare and state budgets. Governors representing both parties also responded to social movements for racial justice: four more Democratic governors and five more Republican governors discussed race in 2021 than was the case in 2020.

That said, differences persist. Democratic and Republican governors have different emphases. For example, while education issues like schools are mentioned at the same frequency by governors from both parties, Democratic governors spent more time talking about the climate and vaccines, while Republican governors placed more emphasis on reopening the economy and criminal justice. Meanwhile, governors of the Northeast are considerably more focused on the environment than those from the South, who mentioned criminal justice at a higher rate than their Northeast counterparts.

For more on how states balanced the economic and human toll of the pandemic, read HPS’ analysis on state pandemic responses.

The pandemic is not over, but it now feels like the outcome is written. We know a lot more now than we did a year ago—not only about the virus but also how to respond to it. The policies and choices, successes and failures are now surfacing and strewn about like the debris after a storm.      

One of the most interesting aspects of the pandemic aftermath is the 50 different ways our federal system approached the crisis. States had, and have, different policies and approaches to virus mitigation, and the outcomes of that inadvertent policy experiment are now becoming apparent.

Florida and New York seem to have staked an early claim as the states the political class wants to fight over, but it is worth starting with the data before we force the evidence through the red and blue filters.

To evaluate individual state responses to the pandemic, we took a look at two of the major considerations in balancing the response: jobs and deaths. Ultimately, policymakers wanted to keep as many people from dying and as many people from losing their jobs as possible. Unfortunately, these goals were sometimes naturally at odds throughout this pandemic.  Jobs that require close proximity to others (for either employees or customers) resulted in greater COVID-19 spread, and thus more deaths.

To explore the trade-offs that were made, we plotted states by their per capita excess deaths using CDC data against the BLS data on their per capita job losses over the past year. Excess deaths as a measure should generally control for age and demographic differences between states and capture other dimensions of the pandemic like deaths of despair or undiagnosed COVID deaths (of note, North Carolina’s death reporting has a significant lag and so we used reported COVID deaths for that state data; there is a lag in death data generally that complicates analysis).

At a high level, it appears that the US lost 13 jobs for every person who died from COVID-19 in the year following the start of the pandemic, but this is not shared evenly across states. States with major hospitality and tourism sectors were hit hard in terms of job loss, with the impact falling unevenly across sectors. And states that were in the first wave of infections—when the healthcare system was still learning how to treat COVID-19—fared comparatively worse on their death tolls.

New York, which falls into both categories, had the worst overall outcome, with both high excess deaths and high job losses. The states that emerged in the best position were Idaho, Utah, and West Virginia, all with some combination of low loss of life and low loss of employment.  And Florida?  In the middle on both dimensions, which should give everyone something to fight over.     

Overall economic sentiment fell a full point to 49.3 over the past two weeks, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). Confidence in the job market soared to its highest level since 2018, but it wasn’t enough to overcome a drop in confidence in the housing market, personal finances, and the overall U.S. economy.  

Despite the strong confidence in the job market (rising 3.2 points to 50.7), likely buoyed by the impressive March jobs report, three of the remaining four ESI indicators fell over the past two weeks:

 – Confidence in the housing market tied for the sharpest drop in sentiment, declining 3.1 points to 43.9, its lowest value in a year.

– Consumer confidence in personal finances also fell 3.1 points, hitting a four-month low of 55.2.

– Overall sentiment towards the U.S. economy fell 2.7 points to 51.1.

– Yet, consumers’ confidence in making a major purchase reached a six-month high, inching up 0.4 points to 45.5.

The moving average began on March 31 at 50.1. It fluctuated over the two-week period, reaching its second-highest value of 50.8 on April 2, when the March jobs report was released, and its overall high of 51.3 on April 8. The moving average hit its low of 46.5 on April 11 before closing at 46.8 on April 13.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures. For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

These days, it’s hard to keep up with everything happening on the Hill. In fact, if you were to read every tweet members and committees of Congress published since the beginning of the year, it would take you more than 20 days to read the 157,757 tweets.

Since you probably don’t have that kind of spare time, HPS is helping out with the launch of Capitol Chatter: A Quarterly Analysis Of Congressional Tweets. This new product is designed to help Hill watchers better understand the topics members of Congress are talking about directly to their followers and constituents.

Our initial analysis looked at tweets from all official House and Senate accounts between January 1, 2021, and March 31, 2021. Here is what we found: COVID-19 far surpassed other topics of discussion and Democrats tweeted and retweeted a lot more than Republicans, but Republican Senator John Cornyn was the most prolific tweeter of any member. Find out more about who is tweeting, what they are tweeting about, and how they are talking about it below.

Unsurprisingly, COVID-19 was far and away the most frequently mentioned topic. The second most mentioned topic was the economy, followed by commemorative events. These tweets celebrating, honoring, or mourning commemorative events edged out the foreign affairs & defense as the third most tweeted about topic. While only some 2,000 tweets discussed infrastructure in the first quarter of 2021, we anticipate infrastructure to rise in the rankings in the coming weeks and months with the recent release of the Biden-Harris administration’s American Jobs Plan.

Diving into the partisan breakdown of congressional tweets, it is clear Democrats are significantly more active than their Republican colleagues. While Democrats right now only narrowly outnumber Republicans on the Hill, Democrats in Congress were responsible for nearly two-thirds of all tweets.

Democrats and Republicans also focused on different topics in their tweets. A tally of the most popular terms used shows that members of both parties were highly focused on the pandemic but diverged on mentions of other topics. Of all terms, Democrats were most likely to mention “COVID,” followed by “Trump,” “vaccine,” “pandemic,” and “honor.” Their mentions of Trump were primarily in relation to the January 6th insurrection, with almost 65% of tweets from Democratic Representatives mentioning Trump coming from the month of January. Meanwhile, Republicans were most likely to mention “COVID,” followed by “school,” “vaccine,” “tax,” and “honor.”

While “school” was a popular term on both sides, being mentioned nearly 3,000 times by Democrats and Republicans combined, the two parties used the word in different contexts. Nearly 30% of Republicans tweeting about schools used the word “reopen” in the same tweet, compared to 17% of Democrats who did the same. Instead, Democrats often talked about schools in tandem with the economy: 20% of them discussed economic issues in their tweets mentioning the word “school,” while only 5% of Republicans did so. Twitter accounts from both parties, however, shared a common usage of the word “honor” for event-related tweets, such as congratulating Administration appointees, celebrating holidays, or thanking armed servicemen and women.

While Democrats tweeted more on average, Republican Senator John Cornyn was the most prolific tweeter of any member or committee of Congress, cranking out 2,198 tweets over three months, an average of more than 24 tweets per day. In fact, Senator Cornyn tweeted more than twice as many times as as Representative Andy Biggs, the second most frequent Republican tweeter. Half of the top 10 Republican tweeters were Senators, while only one Democratic Senator — Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer — made the top 10 for his side of the aisle. The most talkative Democrat on Twitter was Representative Dwight Evans with 1,740 total tweets in Q1. On the Democratic side, there were seven members that had more than 1,000 tweets, compared to the Republican side with only two members that passed this threshold. Additionally, one official Democratic committee account — House Judiciary Democrats — broke into the top 10, driven by an exceptionally high number of retweets: nearly 70% of the posts from this account were retweets.

Methodology

HPS conducted text analysis on all tweets and retweets from handles included in CSPAN’s “members of Congress” Twitter list that were posted between January 1, 2021 and March 31, 2021. In total, we searched for more than 150 keywords in each of the 157,757 tweets to determine which topics were discussed in each.

Economic sentiment fell 1.1 points to 50.3, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). The decline comes on the heels of a month-long surge in confidence that peaked on March 16 with the highest reading since the pandemic declaration. The decline was driven by significant drops in confidence toward the U.S. economy and the housing market. 

Three of the ESI indicators declined over the past two weeks despite increasing rates of vaccinations, implementation of the American Rescue Plan, and extension of the Paycheck Protection Program. As COVID-19 cases began to tick upwards over the past two weeks, confidence in the U.S. economy experienced a sharp decline, falling 2.8 points to 53.8. Meanwhile, ahead of what many experts expect to be a strong March jobs report, confidence in the job market continued to spike, rising 1.9 points to 47.5. This is the reading’s highest level since 2019, and a divergence from the other economic indicators.

The other indicators experienced the following movement:

 – Confidence in the housing market declined sharply, falling 3.1 points to 47.0, its lowest level since April 2020.

– Confidence in personal finances fell 1.7 points to 58.3, retreating from its record-high reading.

– Consumer confidence in making a major purchase rose 0.5 points to 45.1, a new high for 2021.

The moving average began on March 17 at its peak of 53.6. It steadily fell to its low of 48.8 on March 24 before entering a period of fluctuation, closing the reading at 50.1 on March 30.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures. For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

Economic sentiment climbed 1.8 points to 51.4, its highest reading in a year, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). Over the two week period that marked the passage of the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan (ARPA), consumer confidence rose to its highest level since the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic on March 11, 2020.

Economic sentiment climbed 1.8 points to 51.4, its highest reading in a year, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). With the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan (ARPA) signed into law, consumers have regained the most confidence they’ve had in the U.S. economy since before the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic on March 11, 2020.

 – Confidence in the overall U.S. economy rose 1.2 points to a year-long high of 56.6.

– Housing market confidence went up 0.7 points to 50.1.

– Consumer confidence in making a major purchase increased 0.6 points to 44.6, a high for 2021.

The moving average began on March 3 at 50.1 and rose throughout the two-week period, reaching its close, and peak, at 54.0 on March 16.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures. For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.