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Economic Sentiment Rebounds, Its First Jump Since January

Economic sentiment surged over the past two weeks, rising 2.2 points to a reading of 49.6, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI).  With Congress seemingly on the cusp of sending a COVID-relief bill to President Biden’s desk and COVID cases decreasing across the country, economic sentiment rose for the first time in two months. The surge was driven by a significant boost in confidence towards the overall U.S. economy.

All five of the ESI’s indicators rose over the past two weeks amidst better than expected economic data, House passage of the COVID-relief package, continued rollout of COVID vaccines, and new economic forecasts signaling strong U.S. economic growth in in the months ahead. Confidence in the U.S. economy grew the most, rising by 5.6 points to 55.4, its largest jump since September.

The four other indicators rose at a more modest pace:

Confidence in the job market increased 1.9 points to 43.1, its highest level since September.

The consumer indicators of confidence in personal finances and making a major purchase rose 1.9 and 1.8 points, respectively.

Confidence in the housing market increased slightly, moving up 0.1 point to 49.4.

The moving average began at its low of 47.6 on February 17 and peaked on February 21 at 50.7. It then fluctuated within a 1.0 band for the remainder of the reading, closing at 49.1 on March 2.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures. For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

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Economic Sentiment Continues Its 2021 Rut

Overall economic sentiment fell during the first two weeks of February 2021, declining 0.3 points to a reading of 47.4, according to the HPS-Civic Science Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). As Congressional debates over additional stimulus continue, wariness about the overall U.S. economy outweighed Americans’ boost in confidence in their personal finances and the job market.

Three of the ESI’s five indicators declined over the past two weeks. Despite the Biden administration’s announcement of securing an additional 200 million doses of the COVID-19 vaccine, confidence in the U.S. economy fell the most, declining 1.1 points to 49.8, the lowest reading in 2021 and the first dip below 50 points since December 2020.

– Two other indicators declined: Confidence in making a major purchase dropped by 0.3 points to 42.2.

– Housing market confidence fell more significantly, dropping 0.9 points to 49.3.

Meanwhile, 49,000 jobs were gained in January, and Congress continues to debate the size and form of additional stimulus, which may partly explain why the final two indicators increased:

– Job market confidence saw a slight uptick of 0.2 points to 41.2 points, the highest reading since October 2020.

– Confidence in personal finance increased by 0.6 points to 54.5.

The moving average began on February 3 at 48.0 and peaked on February 12 at 48.9 before a steady decline over the past few days, reaching its low and closing number of 45.4 on February 16.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures. For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

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Insights: The Final Jobs Report Of The Trump Administration

This week’s BLS data release marks the final jobs report of the Trump Administration, one defined by both record highs and lows for the U.S. labor force.

The economy gained 49K jobs in January 2021.

President Trump has long viewed job creation as an indicator of the success or failure of a presidency. During his 2016 campaign, he assured voters that he would be the “greatest jobs president” ever. 

The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in March uprooted what had previously been steady job growth, resulting in more than 20M jobs lost in the month of April alone. Although more than half of those early job losses have been recovered, a core group of low-income workers and people of color remain hard-hit, with many now falling into long-term unemployment. The Trump administration could have indeed ended its tenure with a “great” jobs market, with one very large caveat: no pandemic.

Comparing total job numbers across presidencies is difficult: given that the U.S. population has grown over time, a million jobs now represents a smaller share of the overall unemployment picture than in times past. Additionally, time spent in office differs, leaving some presidents with less time—whether for better or for worse. In modern history, Trump, Bush I, Carter, and Nixon served only one full term. The question then becomes, what did a president do with the time they had? With that said, let’s dive in.

Before the onset of the pandemic, the Trump-era economy was strong, albeit not record-breaking. Trump’s peak prime age labor force participation rate, or the participation rate of individuals aged 25-54, reached 83% in January of 2020, approaching the recent high of 83.3% set in 2008, and falling just under the all-time high of 84.5%, set in the late 1990s.

Despite not creating the “greatest” job market, the Trump Administration’s economic fallout was undoubtedly tied to COVID-19, which presented challenges unprecedented in modern times. As analogized by Paul Krugman, the impacts of the pandemic on the labor market have characterized themselves in a manner “much more like a natural disaster” than a conventional recession.

With the Trump era now concluded, here is where the economy stands: more than half of the 22M jobs lost at the onset of the pandemic are now recovered. Despite these gains, many have yet to return to work, with 4M classified as long-term unemployed, particularly in sectors like leisure and hospitality, mining, and manufacturing. The Biden Administration and Congress, who are currently debating the size and scale of an additional COVID-19 relief bill, have a difficult road ahead if their goal is for the labor market to look as robust as it did one year ago. 

Note: Each President’s term for job creation is defined as the February after their inauguration until the January of the year they leave office.

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Economic Sentiment Plateaus In The First Full Reading Of The Biden Administration

Economic sentiment held flat over the past two weeks, maintaining a reading of 47.7, according to the HPS-Civic Science Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). Despite bumps in confidence in the job market and U.S. economy, the reading was weighed down by a significant decline in Americans’ confidence in their personal finances. 

Three of the ESI’s five indicators increased over the past two weeks. Climbing the most was confidence in the job market which rose 1.3 points to 41.0, returning to a level similar to that recorded before the most recent COVID surge. Confidence in the U.S. economy and making a major purchase also experienced slight upticks, increasing 0.8 and 0.5 points, to 50.9 and 42.5 respectively. Falling the most was confidence in personal finances, which dropped 1.9 points to 53.9. Despite the continued distribution of economic impact payments throughout January, confidence in personal finances has now fallen 3.4 points since the start of January. Confidence in the housing market also fell, declining 1.0 point to 50.2.

This is the first full ESI reading under the new Biden Administration, which has prioritized COVID-related policies such as increased vaccination distribution and advocating for another round of economic stimulus. The size and scope of the stimulus is still unclear as Republican Senators who met with President Biden on Monday have offered a smaller, trimmed down stimulus that could pass on a bipartisan basis, while Democratic leadership continues to support advancing a significantly more robust, likely partisan, stimulus package. Despite a litany of economic data showing that growth, and employment slowed in the Q4 of 2020, the Congressional Budget Office released some positive projections that U.S. growth will return to pre-pandemic levels later this year and employment may fall to 5.3 percent.

Despite the ESI’s level reading, the three-day moving average ticked upwards in the closing days of the period. The moving average began on January 20 at 49.8 and peaked the following day at 50.4 It then maintained a relatively steady decline to its low of 44.8 on January 30. The average closed the reading on an upswing, closing at 48.3 on February 2.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures. For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

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Insights: A Peek Into The 50-50 Senate’s Future With Former Senator Chris Dodd

In the days before President Joe Biden’s inauguration, Senator Chris Dodd (D-CT) joined the HPS Insights podcast for a wide-ranging conversation on Biden’s agenda, the enormous tasks he faces upon assuming office, and the future of the U.S. Senate.

Senator Dodd, one of President-elect Biden’s closest friends, spent nearly three decades serving alongside President Biden in the United States Senate, including as members of the Foreign Relations Committee and worked closely with then-Vice President Biden during the passage of the Affordable Care Act and the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act.

Our conversation started with Senator Dodd’s views on how President Biden will seek to heal a divided nation following the insurrection at the Capitol while managing the government’s efforts to defeat the COVID-19 pandemic. Senator Dodd discusses how President Biden will focus his attention on defeating the pandemic first, then reopening the American economy, while allowing the Senate to work through an impeachment trial and the confirmation process.

Regarding President Biden’s historically diverse staffing nominations, Senator Dodd offered that, “No other administration ever again will be able to come into power in this country — Democrat or Republican — and not try to model the team they built around them…”

Senator Dodd previews life in an evenly divided Senate, based on his own experience in 2001. The former Banking Committee Chairman expects to see Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH) and other Democratic Chairs work closely with their ranking members, but with an urgency to move legislation forward that addresses the pressing issues Democrats have been pushing for. These issues include economic equality, racial justice, immigration reform, climate change, and more.

Will Democrats need to eliminate the filibuster to accomplish their agenda? Senator Dodd offers a few ideas for reforming the filibuster, such as increasing the political cost of exercising the filibuster so that it is reserved only for critical matters.

To hear the full conversation, subscribe to HPS Insights wherever you get your podcasts or listen here.

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Economic Sentiment Falls Slightly Following Turbulent Two Weeks

Overall economic sentiment is down slightly in the second 2021 reading of the HPS-Civic Science Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). Following a two-week stretch in which the storming of the U.S. Capitol and delayed vaccine rollouts dominated the headlines, the ESI dropped 0.6 points to 47.7.

Four of the ESI’s five indicators declined over the past two weeks. Falling the most was confidence in personal finances, which dropped 1.5 points to 55.8. Close behind were readings of confidence in finding a new job (down 1.4 points to 39.7) and confidence in making a major purchase (down 1.3 points to 42.0). Bucking the downward trend of the other indicators was confidence in the housing market, which jumped up 2.2 points to 51.2.

The beginning of this two-week stretch was marked by both the U.S. Capitol being breached by rioters seeking to overturn the result of the 2020 election, and news that two Democrats–Jon Ossoff and Rev. Raphael Warnock–were the winners in Georgia’s Senate elections, tipping the makeup of the new Senate in the Democrats’ favor. At the same time, the number of applications for jobless benefits reached a level not seen since March in the week that ended Jan 9. The period also saw the continued acceleration of deaths due to COVID-19, while efforts to roll out the coronavirus vaccine were bogged down by confusion and delays across the country. Some form of forward-looking clarity, however, may have been achieved when President Joe Biden unveiled his plan to vaccinate 100 million Americans in his first 100 days in office.

Although the ESI fell over the course of the last two weeks, the three-day moving average notched a substantial upswing in the closing days of the period. The moving average began on January 6 at 47.2, before dropping to its low of 46.4 on January 12. The average then gradually increased, peaking at 49.9 on January 18, and closed out at 49.2 on January 19.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures. For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

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HPS Announces New Director Scott Haber And Promotions For Meghan Pennington, Elliott Owensby, And Jesse Steinmetz

Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS) announced today that Scott Haber has joined the firm as a director.

Haber joins HPS after serving as communications director for Internet Association (IA) for over four years. While there, he worked to establish IA as the go-to industry voice on tech policy issues, such as Section 230 and digital trade. Haber engaged with national media on behalf of the organization, translated complex tech concepts into clear messaging for key audiences, and carried out integrated communications strategies to advance IA’s policy goals. Prior to working at IA, Haber was a senior analyst at HPS, where he supported clients within the healthcare, transportation, and trade industries.

“We’re excited to welcome Scott back to HPS as a director,” said HPS Partner Matt McDonald. “Scott’s time at Internet Association gives him deep expertise on key issues like net neutrality, intellectual property, and content moderation, and his time as a former senior analyst at HPS means he will be able to deliver immediate impact for our clients. His experience is invaluable, and I look forward to watching him support clients as they navigate these important issues.”

HPS is also excited to announce the promotion of Meghan Pennington to managing director, as well as Elliott Owensby ad Jesse Steinmetz to senior director.

“Meghan, Elliott, and Jesse are all essential parts of the HPS team,” said Matt McDonald. “Over the course of their time at the firm, they have benefitted our clients and teams through strong leadership, creativity, and strategic thinking. I’m very excited to work with them as they continue to grow professionally, contribute to our strong culture at HPS, and support our clients to reach their goals.”

During her time at HPS, Pennington has advised clients on public affairs strategy, policy communications, and media relations across a wide array of sectors. Her extensive experience crafting effective communications strategies comes from both her time at HPS and her previous roles on Capitol Hill, where she served as the communications director for the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, U.S. Senator Tom Carper, and Representative John Sarbanes prior to joining the HPS team.

Owensby counsels corporate, nonprofit, startup, and association clients in a range of sectors, including financial services, tech, and higher education. At HPS, Owensby bridges his broad experience in data analysis and visualization with communications and digital strategy, helping clients develop high-impact, data-oriented analyses and campaigns. Prior to joining the firm, he served as a fellow at NeighborWorks America, with a background in urban policy and economics.

Since joining HPS in 2015, Steinmetz has advised clients navigating complex communications and policy challenges – including ESG, M&A, and regulatory matters – while playing a pivotal role in managing HPS’ expansion into New York. She has extensive experience supporting clients with corporate positioning and crisis management, leading teams across fields including financial services, alternative asset management, technology, and healthcare.

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HPS Welcomes Kriston McIntosh As Managing Director

Today, Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS) is proud to announce veteran public affairs strategist Kriston McIntosh is joining the firm’s Washington, D.C., office as a managing director.

McIntosh brings to HPS two decades of experience providing strategic counsel to Fortune 100 companies, nonprofit leaders, and members of Congress, including the Democratic leadership in the U.S. Senate and the late Congressman and civil rights hero John Lewis (D-GA). She will be joining HPS after spending six years as managing director of the Hamilton Project, an economic policy center at the Brookings Institution focused on developing solutions to create a growing economy that benefits more Americans.

“I’m incredibly excited that Kriston is joining our team, especially at such a dynamic time for our business and clients,” said Tony Fratto, founding partner of HPS. “The public affairs landscape is becoming increasingly complex and with issues of economic security top of mind for policymakers, Kriston’s deep understanding of the public policy and communications challenges ahead will be an invaluable asset to our firm. We’re all looking forward to learning from her.”

“Kriston is an innovative strategist with experience on issues that are important to our firm and top of mind for our clients,” said HPS partner Stacy Kerr. “Kriston has been in the field developing policy solutions with some of the foremost economic leaders. She is a leader with a proven record of building and managing high-performing teams, something that is critical to our culture at HPS. We are grateful and lucky that Kriston has chosen to continue her career with the HPS team. I look forward to bringing her perspective to our work.”

“I am thrilled to have the opportunity to work with the incredibly talented practitioners and industry leaders at HPS to advance the firm’s research-driven approach to solving complex client challenges. I look forward to applying my experience in the public affairs and public policy arenas to help HPS’ clients navigate an increasingly evolving landscape to meet their strategic communications and business objectives,” said McIntosh.

As the managing director at the Hamilton Project at Brookings, McIntosh elevated its profile with the media, policymakers, academia, and business leaders on key issues of economic inequality, education, and the racial wealth gap. She also authored op-ed columns on economic policy issues that have appeared in CNN, BBC, The Hill, The Detroit Free Press, and Real Clear Markets.

Prior to the Hamilton Project, McIntosh served as senior vice president at Edelman, a global public relations and marketing consultancy firm. For the Edelman Alliances practice, she managed a range of successful national public affairs campaigns on a range of issues including clean energy, telecommunications, and healthcare.

Previously, McIntosh worked as the staff director for the U.S. Senate Democratic Steering and Outreach Committee and as a policy advisor to Congressman John Lewis, advising him on labor policy and appropriations requests. Earlier in her career, she served as the legislative affairs manager at the United Nations Foundation and as a press secretary to Congressman John Conyers (D-MI).

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Economic Sentiment Posts An Optimistic Start To 2021

As Americans say goodbye to the difficult year that was 2020 and ring in the New Year, consumers are expressing heightened confidence in 2021’s first reading of the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). Economic sentiment continued its month-long upward trend, posting an increase (1.4 points to 48.3) for the third straight reading following the enactment of a second COVID-19 relief bill and continued deployment of a COVID vaccine.

Four of the five individual indicators rose during the two-week reading period. The largest increase was in confidence in the job market, which rose 2.7 points to 41.1. Confidence in the labor market has now risen 6.3 points over the past month, despite November’s stagnant jobs report and persistently high weekly unemployment claims. The consumer-centric indicators also received steady bumps, as confidence in making a major purchase and personal finances rose 2.5 and 1.7 points, respectively. Confidence in the overall U.S. economy followed last reading’s substantial increase with a muted, 0.4-point jump, entering 2021 at 50.7. 2020’s hottest indicator, the housing market, was the sole indicator to decline, falling by 0.3 points to 49.0.

The reading’s increase moves the ESI to confidence levels not seen since October and follows on the heels of the enactment of a $900B COVID-19 relief bill. The U.S. continued its vaccine rollout over the holidays, but two issues may impact future readings. Vaccine deployment delays across the country have stoked concerns about a slower pace of vaccination that could prolong the impact of the pandemic. Those concerns were exacerbated by the news that December was the deadliest month of the pandemic, as over 77,000 people lost their lives in the U.S. and experts remain worried that January may also be difficult following a holiday surge and the potential spread of a more contagious COVID-19 variant.

The ESI’s three-day moving average fluctuated heavily over the past two weeks, beginning at 48.0 before dropping to its reading low of 46.4 on December 26. The moving average then steadily increased, peaking at 51.7 on January 2 before falling significantly to close the reading at 46.9.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures. For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

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Economic Sentiment Continues To Improve Ahead Of The New Year

Consumer economic sentiment continued its recovery for a second straight reading as lawmakers passed a new COVID-19 relief bill and Americans enjoy a modified holiday season. The latest reading of the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) showed an increase of 1.2 points to 46.9, led by a 3.4-point jump in confidence in the broader economy.

Four of the five individual indicators improved during the two-week reading period. The largest increase was in confidence in the broader economy, whose 3.4-point jump represents the biggest improvement in the indicator since September 2020. Confidence in personal finances and the labor market also experienced a substantial increase, improving by 2.8 and 2.4 points, respectively. Confidence in the housing market also moved up by 1.7 points to reach 49.3. In contrast, on the heels of the holiday shopping season, confidence in making a major purchase dropped by 4.1 points—the largest drop in the indicator since the start of the pandemic in March.

The steady improvement in confidence over the past two weeks comes as Congress passed a long-awaited and much-debated $900B relief bill, and as health care workers, senior citizens, and others receive the initial wave of Moderna and Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccines. Still, several areas of the U.S. are grappling with a post-Thanksgiving coronavirus surge and facing potential re-implementation of restrictions to minimize the spread. As the effects of the pandemic continue to hit pocketbooks, consumer spending by way of holiday shopping is expected to be weaker this year.

The ESI’s three-day moving average held relatively steady over the past two weeks, beginning at 45.6 before dropping to a low of 45.5 on December 14. The moving average peaked at 48.4 on December 18, and subsequently dropped back down to close out the reading at 46.3 on December 22.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures. For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.