Economic Sentiment Falls Slightly Following Turbulent Two Weeks
Overall economic sentiment is down slightly in the second 2021 reading of the HPS-Civic Science Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). Following a two-week stretch in which the storming of the U.S. Capitol and delayed vaccine rollouts dominated the headlines, the ESI dropped 0.6 points to 47.7.
Four of the ESI’s five indicators declined over the past two weeks. Falling the most was confidence in personal finances, which dropped 1.5 points to 55.8. Close behind were readings of confidence in finding a new job (down 1.4 points to 39.7) and confidence in making a major purchase (down 1.3 points to 42.0). Bucking the downward trend of the other indicators was confidence in the housing market, which jumped up 2.2 points to 51.2.
The beginning of this two-week stretch was marked by both the U.S. Capitol being breached by rioters seeking to overturn the result of the 2020 election, and news that two Democrats–Jon Ossoff and Rev. Raphael Warnock–were the winners in Georgia’s Senate elections, tipping the makeup of the new Senate in the Democrats’ favor. At the same time, the number of applications for jobless benefits reached a level not seen since March in the week that ended Jan 9. The period also saw the continued acceleration of deaths due to COVID-19, while efforts to roll out the coronavirus vaccine were bogged down by confusion and delays across the country. Some form of forward-looking clarity, however, may have been achieved when President Joe Biden unveiled his plan to vaccinate 100 million Americans in his first 100 days in office.
Although the ESI fell over the course of the last two weeks, the three-day moving average notched a substantial upswing in the closing days of the period. The moving average began on January 6 at 47.2, before dropping to its low of 46.4 on January 12. The average then gradually increased, peaking at 49.9 on January 18, and closed out at 49.2 on January 19.
About the Index
The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures. For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.
CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.