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Economic Sentiment Continues Downward Trend Despite Highest Job Market Confidence Since 2018

Overall economic sentiment fell a full point to 49.3 over the past two weeks, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). Confidence in the job market soared to its highest level since 2018, but it wasn’t enough to overcome a drop in confidence in the housing market, personal finances, and the overall U.S. economy.  

Despite the strong confidence in the job market (rising 3.2 points to 50.7), likely buoyed by the impressive March jobs report, three of the remaining four ESI indicators fell over the past two weeks:

 – Confidence in the housing market tied for the sharpest drop in sentiment, declining 3.1 points to 43.9, its lowest value in a year.

– Consumer confidence in personal finances also fell 3.1 points, hitting a four-month low of 55.2.

– Overall sentiment towards the U.S. economy fell 2.7 points to 51.1.

– Yet, consumers’ confidence in making a major purchase reached a six-month high, inching up 0.4 points to 45.5.

The moving average began on March 31 at 50.1. It fluctuated over the two-week period, reaching its second-highest value of 50.8 on April 2, when the March jobs report was released, and its overall high of 51.3 on April 8. The moving average hit its low of 46.5 on April 11 before closing at 46.8 on April 13.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures. For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

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Capitol Chatter: A First Quarter Analysis Of Congressional Tweets

These days, it’s hard to keep up with everything happening on the Hill. In fact, if you were to read every tweet members and committees of Congress published since the beginning of the year, it would take you more than 20 days to read the 157,757 tweets.

Since you probably don’t have that kind of spare time, HPS is helping out with the launch of Capitol Chatter: A Quarterly Analysis Of Congressional Tweets. This new product is designed to help Hill watchers better understand the topics members of Congress are talking about directly to their followers and constituents.

Our initial analysis looked at tweets from all official House and Senate accounts between January 1, 2021, and March 31, 2021. Here is what we found: COVID-19 far surpassed other topics of discussion and Democrats tweeted and retweeted a lot more than Republicans, but Republican Senator John Cornyn was the most prolific tweeter of any member. Find out more about who is tweeting, what they are tweeting about, and how they are talking about it below.

Unsurprisingly, COVID-19 was far and away the most frequently mentioned topic. The second most mentioned topic was the economy, followed by commemorative events. These tweets celebrating, honoring, or mourning commemorative events edged out the foreign affairs & defense as the third most tweeted about topic. While only some 2,000 tweets discussed infrastructure in the first quarter of 2021, we anticipate infrastructure to rise in the rankings in the coming weeks and months with the recent release of the Biden-Harris administration’s American Jobs Plan.

Diving into the partisan breakdown of congressional tweets, it is clear Democrats are significantly more active than their Republican colleagues. While Democrats right now only narrowly outnumber Republicans on the Hill, Democrats in Congress were responsible for nearly two-thirds of all tweets.

Democrats and Republicans also focused on different topics in their tweets. A tally of the most popular terms used shows that members of both parties were highly focused on the pandemic but diverged on mentions of other topics. Of all terms, Democrats were most likely to mention “COVID,” followed by “Trump,” “vaccine,” “pandemic,” and “honor.” Their mentions of Trump were primarily in relation to the January 6th insurrection, with almost 65% of tweets from Democratic Representatives mentioning Trump coming from the month of January. Meanwhile, Republicans were most likely to mention “COVID,” followed by “school,” “vaccine,” “tax,” and “honor.”

While “school” was a popular term on both sides, being mentioned nearly 3,000 times by Democrats and Republicans combined, the two parties used the word in different contexts. Nearly 30% of Republicans tweeting about schools used the word “reopen” in the same tweet, compared to 17% of Democrats who did the same. Instead, Democrats often talked about schools in tandem with the economy: 20% of them discussed economic issues in their tweets mentioning the word “school,” while only 5% of Republicans did so. Twitter accounts from both parties, however, shared a common usage of the word “honor” for event-related tweets, such as congratulating Administration appointees, celebrating holidays, or thanking armed servicemen and women.

While Democrats tweeted more on average, Republican Senator John Cornyn was the most prolific tweeter of any member or committee of Congress, cranking out 2,198 tweets over three months, an average of more than 24 tweets per day. In fact, Senator Cornyn tweeted more than twice as many times as as Representative Andy Biggs, the second most frequent Republican tweeter. Half of the top 10 Republican tweeters were Senators, while only one Democratic Senator — Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer — made the top 10 for his side of the aisle. The most talkative Democrat on Twitter was Representative Dwight Evans with 1,740 total tweets in Q1. On the Democratic side, there were seven members that had more than 1,000 tweets, compared to the Republican side with only two members that passed this threshold. Additionally, one official Democratic committee account — House Judiciary Democrats — broke into the top 10, driven by an exceptionally high number of retweets: nearly 70% of the posts from this account were retweets.

Methodology

HPS conducted text analysis on all tweets and retweets from handles included in CSPAN’s “members of Congress” Twitter list that were posted between January 1, 2021 and March 31, 2021. In total, we searched for more than 150 keywords in each of the 157,757 tweets to determine which topics were discussed in each.

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Economic Sentiment Declines Following Year-Long High

Economic sentiment fell 1.1 points to 50.3, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). The decline comes on the heels of a month-long surge in confidence that peaked on March 16 with the highest reading since the pandemic declaration. The decline was driven by significant drops in confidence toward the U.S. economy and the housing market. 

Three of the ESI indicators declined over the past two weeks despite increasing rates of vaccinationsimplementation of the American Rescue Plan, and extension of the Paycheck Protection Program. As COVID-19 cases began to tick upwards over the past two weeks, confidence in the U.S. economy experienced a sharp decline, falling 2.8 points to 53.8. Meanwhile, ahead of what many experts expect to be a strong March jobs report, confidence in the job market continued to spike, rising 1.9 points to 47.5. This is the reading’s highest level since 2019, and a divergence from the other economic indicators.

The other indicators experienced the following movement:

 – Confidence in the housing market declined sharply, falling 3.1 points to 47.0, its lowest level since April 2020.

– Confidence in personal finances fell 1.7 points to 58.3, retreating from its record-high reading.

– Consumer confidence in making a major purchase rose 0.5 points to 45.1, a new high for 2021.

The moving average began on March 17 at its peak of 53.6. It steadily fell to its low of 48.8 on March 24 before entering a period of fluctuation, closing the reading at 50.1 on March 30.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures. For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

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Highest Economic Sentiment Since The Pandemic Declaration

Economic sentiment climbed 1.8 points to 51.4, its highest reading in a year, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). Over the two week period that marked the passage of the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan (ARPA), consumer confidence rose to its highest level since the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic on March 11, 2020.

Economic sentiment climbed 1.8 points to 51.4, its highest reading in a year, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). With the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan (ARPA) signed into law, consumers have regained the most confidence they’ve had in the U.S. economy since before the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic on March 11, 2020.

 – Confidence in the overall U.S. economy rose 1.2 points to a year-long high of 56.6.

– Housing market confidence went up 0.7 points to 50.1.

– Consumer confidence in making a major purchase increased 0.6 points to 44.6, a high for 2021.

The moving average began on March 3 at 50.1 and rose throughout the two-week period, reaching its close, and peak, at 54.0 on March 16.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures. For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

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Economic Sentiment Rebounds, Its First Jump Since January

Economic sentiment surged over the past two weeks, rising 2.2 points to a reading of 49.6, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI).  With Congress seemingly on the cusp of sending a COVID-relief bill to President Biden’s desk and COVID cases decreasing across the country, economic sentiment rose for the first time in two months. The surge was driven by a significant boost in confidence towards the overall U.S. economy.

All five of the ESI’s indicators rose over the past two weeks amidst better than expected economic data, House passage of the COVID-relief package, continued rollout of COVID vaccines, and new economic forecasts signaling strong U.S. economic growth in in the months ahead. Confidence in the U.S. economy grew the most, rising by 5.6 points to 55.4, its largest jump since September.

The four other indicators rose at a more modest pace:

Confidence in the job market increased 1.9 points to 43.1, its highest level since September.

The consumer indicators of confidence in personal finances and making a major purchase rose 1.9 and 1.8 points, respectively.

Confidence in the housing market increased slightly, moving up 0.1 point to 49.4.

The moving average began at its low of 47.6 on February 17 and peaked on February 21 at 50.7. It then fluctuated within a 1.0 band for the remainder of the reading, closing at 49.1 on March 2.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures. For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

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Economic Sentiment Continues Its 2021 Rut

Overall economic sentiment fell during the first two weeks of February 2021, declining 0.3 points to a reading of 47.4, according to the HPS-Civic Science Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). As Congressional debates over additional stimulus continue, wariness about the overall U.S. economy outweighed Americans’ boost in confidence in their personal finances and the job market.

Three of the ESI’s five indicators declined over the past two weeks. Despite the Biden administration’s announcement of securing an additional 200 million doses of the COVID-19 vaccine, confidence in the U.S. economy fell the most, declining 1.1 points to 49.8, the lowest reading in 2021 and the first dip below 50 points since December 2020.

– Two other indicators declined: Confidence in making a major purchase dropped by 0.3 points to 42.2.

– Housing market confidence fell more significantly, dropping 0.9 points to 49.3.

Meanwhile, 49,000 jobs were gained in January, and Congress continues to debate the size and form of additional stimulus, which may partly explain why the final two indicators increased:

– Job market confidence saw a slight uptick of 0.2 points to 41.2 points, the highest reading since October 2020.

– Confidence in personal finance increased by 0.6 points to 54.5.

The moving average began on February 3 at 48.0 and peaked on February 12 at 48.9 before a steady decline over the past few days, reaching its low and closing number of 45.4 on February 16.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures. For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

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Insights: The Final Jobs Report Of The Trump Administration

This week’s BLS data release marks the final jobs report of the Trump Administration, one defined by both record highs and lows for the U.S. labor force.

The economy gained 49K jobs in January 2021.

President Trump has long viewed job creation as an indicator of the success or failure of a presidency. During his 2016 campaign, he assured voters that he would be the “greatest jobs president” ever. 

The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in March uprooted what had previously been steady job growth, resulting in more than 20M jobs lost in the month of April alone. Although more than half of those early job losses have been recovered, a core group of low-income workers and people of color remain hard-hit, with many now falling into long-term unemployment. The Trump administration could have indeed ended its tenure with a “great” jobs market, with one very large caveat: no pandemic.

Comparing total job numbers across presidencies is difficult: given that the U.S. population has grown over time, a million jobs now represents a smaller share of the overall unemployment picture than in times past. Additionally, time spent in office differs, leaving some presidents with less time—whether for better or for worse. In modern history, Trump, Bush I, Carter, and Nixon served only one full term. The question then becomes, what did a president do with the time they had? With that said, let’s dive in.

Before the onset of the pandemic, the Trump-era economy was strong, albeit not record-breaking. Trump’s peak prime age labor force participation rate, or the participation rate of individuals aged 25-54, reached 83% in January of 2020, approaching the recent high of 83.3% set in 2008, and falling just under the all-time high of 84.5%, set in the late 1990s.

Despite not creating the “greatest” job market, the Trump Administration’s economic fallout was undoubtedly tied to COVID-19, which presented challenges unprecedented in modern times. As analogized by Paul Krugman, the impacts of the pandemic on the labor market have characterized themselves in a manner “much more like a natural disaster” than a conventional recession.

With the Trump era now concluded, here is where the economy stands: more than half of the 22M jobs lost at the onset of the pandemic are now recovered. Despite these gains, many have yet to return to work, with 4M classified as long-term unemployed, particularly in sectors like leisure and hospitality, mining, and manufacturing. The Biden Administration and Congress, who are currently debating the size and scale of an additional COVID-19 relief bill, have a difficult road ahead if their goal is for the labor market to look as robust as it did one year ago. 

Note: Each President’s term for job creation is defined as the February after their inauguration until the January of the year they leave office.

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Economic Sentiment Plateaus In The First Full Reading Of The Biden Administration

Economic sentiment held flat over the past two weeks, maintaining a reading of 47.7, according to the HPS-Civic Science Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). Despite bumps in confidence in the job market and U.S. economy, the reading was weighed down by a significant decline in Americans’ confidence in their personal finances. 

Three of the ESI’s five indicators increased over the past two weeks. Climbing the most was confidence in the job market which rose 1.3 points to 41.0, returning to a level similar to that recorded before the most recent COVID surge. Confidence in the U.S. economy and making a major purchase also experienced slight upticks, increasing 0.8 and 0.5 points, to 50.9 and 42.5 respectively. Falling the most was confidence in personal finances, which dropped 1.9 points to 53.9. Despite the continued distribution of economic impact payments throughout January, confidence in personal finances has now fallen 3.4 points since the start of January. Confidence in the housing market also fell, declining 1.0 point to 50.2.

This is the first full ESI reading under the new Biden Administration, which has prioritized COVID-related policies such as increased vaccination distribution and advocating for another round of economic stimulus. The size and scope of the stimulus is still unclear as Republican Senators who met with President Biden on Monday have offered a smaller, trimmed down stimulus that could pass on a bipartisan basis, while Democratic leadership continues to support advancing a significantly more robust, likely partisan, stimulus package. Despite a litany of economic data showing that growth, and employment slowed in the Q4 of 2020, the Congressional Budget Office released some positive projections that U.S. growth will return to pre-pandemic levels later this year and employment may fall to 5.3 percent.

Despite the ESI’s level reading, the three-day moving average ticked upwards in the closing days of the period. The moving average began on January 20 at 49.8 and peaked the following day at 50.4 It then maintained a relatively steady decline to its low of 44.8 on January 30. The average closed the reading on an upswing, closing at 48.3 on February 2.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures. For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

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Insights: A Peek Into The 50-50 Senate’s Future With Former Senator Chris Dodd

In the days before President Joe Biden’s inauguration, Senator Chris Dodd (D-CT) joined the HPS Insights podcast for a wide-ranging conversation on Biden’s agenda, the enormous tasks he faces upon assuming office, and the future of the U.S. Senate.

Senator Dodd, one of President-elect Biden’s closest friends, spent nearly three decades serving alongside President Biden in the United States Senate, including as members of the Foreign Relations Committee and worked closely with then-Vice President Biden during the passage of the Affordable Care Act and the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act.

Our conversation started with Senator Dodd’s views on how President Biden will seek to heal a divided nation following the insurrection at the Capitol while managing the government’s efforts to defeat the COVID-19 pandemic. Senator Dodd discusses how President Biden will focus his attention on defeating the pandemic first, then reopening the American economy, while allowing the Senate to work through an impeachment trial and the confirmation process.

Regarding President Biden’s historically diverse staffing nominations, Senator Dodd offered that, “No other administration ever again will be able to come into power in this country — Democrat or Republican — and not try to model the team they built around them…”

Senator Dodd previews life in an evenly divided Senate, based on his own experience in 2001. The former Banking Committee Chairman expects to see Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH) and other Democratic Chairs work closely with their ranking members, but with an urgency to move legislation forward that addresses the pressing issues Democrats have been pushing for. These issues include economic equality, racial justice, immigration reform, climate change, and more.

Will Democrats need to eliminate the filibuster to accomplish their agenda? Senator Dodd offers a few ideas for reforming the filibuster, such as increasing the political cost of exercising the filibuster so that it is reserved only for critical matters.

To hear the full conversation, subscribe to HPS Insights wherever you get your podcasts or listen here.

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Economic Sentiment Falls Slightly Following Turbulent Two Weeks

Overall economic sentiment is down slightly in the second 2021 reading of the HPS-Civic Science Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). Following a two-week stretch in which the storming of the U.S. Capitol and delayed vaccine rollouts dominated the headlines, the ESI dropped 0.6 points to 47.7.

Four of the ESI’s five indicators declined over the past two weeks. Falling the most was confidence in personal finances, which dropped 1.5 points to 55.8. Close behind were readings of confidence in finding a new job (down 1.4 points to 39.7) and confidence in making a major purchase (down 1.3 points to 42.0). Bucking the downward trend of the other indicators was confidence in the housing market, which jumped up 2.2 points to 51.2.

The beginning of this two-week stretch was marked by both the U.S. Capitol being breached by rioters seeking to overturn the result of the 2020 election, and news that two Democrats–Jon Ossoff and Rev. Raphael Warnock–were the winners in Georgia’s Senate elections, tipping the makeup of the new Senate in the Democrats’ favor. At the same time, the number of applications for jobless benefits reached a level not seen since March in the week that ended Jan 9. The period also saw the continued acceleration of deaths due to COVID-19, while efforts to roll out the coronavirus vaccine were bogged down by confusion and delays across the country. Some form of forward-looking clarity, however, may have been achieved when President Joe Biden unveiled his plan to vaccinate 100 million Americans in his first 100 days in office.

Although the ESI fell over the course of the last two weeks, the three-day moving average notched a substantial upswing in the closing days of the period. The moving average began on January 6 at 47.2, before dropping to its low of 46.4 on January 12. The average then gradually increased, peaking at 49.9 on January 18, and closed out at 49.2 on January 19.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures. For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.