Author: smaldonado

Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS) announced today that Scott Haber has joined the firm as a director.

Haber joins HPS after serving as communications director for Internet Association (IA) for over four years. While there, he worked to establish IA as the go-to industry voice on tech policy issues, such as Section 230 and digital trade. Haber engaged with national media on behalf of the organization, translated complex tech concepts into clear messaging for key audiences, and carried out integrated communications strategies to advance IA’s policy goals. Prior to working at IA, Haber was a senior analyst at HPS, where he supported clients within the healthcare, transportation, and trade industries.

“We’re excited to welcome Scott back to HPS as a director,” said HPS Partner Matt McDonald. “Scott’s time at Internet Association gives him deep expertise on key issues like net neutrality, intellectual property, and content moderation, and his time as a former senior analyst at HPS means he will be able to deliver immediate impact for our clients. His experience is invaluable, and I look forward to watching him support clients as they navigate these important issues.”

HPS is also excited to announce the promotion of Meghan Pennington to managing director, as well as Elliott Owensby ad Jesse Steinmetz to senior director.

“Meghan, Elliott, and Jesse are all essential parts of the HPS team,” said Matt McDonald. “Over the course of their time at the firm, they have benefitted our clients and teams through strong leadership, creativity, and strategic thinking. I’m very excited to work with them as they continue to grow professionally, contribute to our strong culture at HPS, and support our clients to reach their goals.”

During her time at HPS, Pennington has advised clients on public affairs strategy, policy communications, and media relations across a wide array of sectors. Her extensive experience crafting effective communications strategies comes from both her time at HPS and her previous roles on Capitol Hill, where she served as the communications director for the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, U.S. Senator Tom Carper, and Representative John Sarbanes prior to joining the HPS team.

Owensby counsels corporate, nonprofit, startup, and association clients in a range of sectors, including financial services, tech, and higher education. At HPS, Owensby bridges his broad experience in data analysis and visualization with communications and digital strategy, helping clients develop high-impact, data-oriented analyses and campaigns. Prior to joining the firm, he served as a fellow at NeighborWorks America, with a background in urban policy and economics.

Since joining HPS in 2015, Steinmetz has advised clients navigating complex communications and policy challenges – including ESG, M&A, and regulatory matters – while playing a pivotal role in managing HPS’ expansion into New York. She has extensive experience supporting clients with corporate positioning and crisis management, leading teams across fields including financial services, alternative asset management, technology, and healthcare.

As Americans say goodbye to the difficult year that was 2020 and ring in the New Year, consumers are expressing heightened confidence in 2021’s first reading of the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). Economic sentiment continued its month-long upward trend, posting an increase (1.4 points to 48.3) for the third straight reading following the enactment of a second COVID-19 relief bill and continued deployment of a COVID vaccine.

Four of the five individual indicators rose during the two-week reading period. The largest increase was in confidence in the job market, which rose 2.7 points to 41.1. Confidence in the labor market has now risen 6.3 points over the past month, despite November’s stagnant jobs report and persistently high weekly unemployment claims. The consumer-centric indicators also received steady bumps, as confidence in making a major purchase and personal finances rose 2.5 and 1.7 points, respectively. Confidence in the overall U.S. economy followed last reading’s substantial increase with a muted, 0.4-point jump, entering 2021 at 50.7. 2020’s hottest indicator, the housing market, was the sole indicator to decline, falling by 0.3 points to 49.0.

The reading’s increase moves the ESI to confidence levels not seen since October and follows on the heels of the enactment of a $900B COVID-19 relief bill. The U.S. continued its vaccine rollout over the holidays, but two issues may impact future readings. Vaccine deployment delays across the country have stoked concerns about a slower pace of vaccination that could prolong the impact of the pandemic. Those concerns were exacerbated by the news that December was the deadliest month of the pandemic, as over 77,000 people lost their lives in the U.S. and experts remain worried that January may also be difficult following a holiday surge and the potential spread of a more contagious COVID-19 variant.

The ESI’s three-day moving average fluctuated heavily over the past two weeks, beginning at 48.0 before dropping to its reading low of 46.4 on December 26. The moving average then steadily increased, peaking at 51.7 on January 2 before falling significantly to close the reading at 46.9.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures. For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

Consumer economic sentiment continued its recovery for a second straight reading as lawmakers passed a new COVID-19 relief bill and Americans enjoy a modified holiday season. The latest reading of the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) showed an increase of 1.2 points to 46.9, led by a 3.4-point jump in confidence in the broader economy.

Four of the five individual indicators improved during the two-week reading period. The largest increase was in confidence in the broader economy, whose 3.4-point jump represents the biggest improvement in the indicator since September 2020. Confidence in personal finances and the labor market also experienced a substantial increase, improving by 2.8 and 2.4 points, respectively. Confidence in the housing market also moved up by 1.7 points to reach 49.3. In contrast, on the heels of the holiday shopping season, confidence in making a major purchase dropped by 4.1 points—the largest drop in the indicator since the start of the pandemic in March.

The steady improvement in confidence over the past two weeks comes as Congress passed a long-awaited and much-debated $900B relief bill, and as health care workers, senior citizens, and others receive the initial wave of Moderna and Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccines. Still, several areas of the U.S. are grappling with a post-Thanksgiving coronavirus surge and facing potential re-implementation of restrictions to minimize the spread. As the effects of the pandemic continue to hit pocketbooks, consumer spending by way of holiday shopping is expected to be weaker this year.

The ESI’s three-day moving average held relatively steady over the past two weeks, beginning at 45.6 before dropping to a low of 45.5 on December 14. The moving average peaked at 48.4 on December 18, and subsequently dropped back down to close out the reading at 46.3 on December 22.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures. For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

Overall economic sentiment recovered slightly after six consecutive weeks of decline. During the past two-week stretch marked by optimism about a COVID-19 vaccine, the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) inched upwards 1.3 points to 45.7

There was contradicting movement among the ESI’s five indicators over the past two weeks. Making the biggest gain was confidence in making a major purchase, which rose 4.5 points to 44.9 — the second largest increase over the past year. Also rising were confidence in the overall U.S. economy (up 1.6 points to 46.9) and confidence in finding a new job (up 1.2 points to 36.0). Weighing these improvements down were decreases in the ESI’s other two indicators: confidence in personal finances dropped 0.9 points to 52.8, while confidence in the housing market declined 0.4 points to 47.6.

COVID-19 vaccine news continued to dominate the headlines over the past two weeks, as the U.S. prepares to administer the vaccine in the coming days and the U.K. began injections of the Pfizer vaccine. The good vaccine news comes as the U.S. passed 15 million positive cases of COVID-19, with hospitals in some regions struggling to cope with overcapacity. Meanwhile, stocks hit new highs last Friday even as November jobs data was less positive than expected and the prospect and size of a renewed stimulus bill remains uncertain.

The ESI’s three-day moving average began the two-week period at 46.0 on November 25, gradually declining to its two-week low of 43.6 on December 1. The moving average then moved upwards, peaking at 47.3 on December 6, before closing out the two-week stretch at 45.2 on December 8.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures. For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

Consumer economic sentiment plunged for the third straight reading as COVID-19 cases surge to their highest levels during the pandemic and many Americans prepare for a modified holiday season. The latest reading of the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) showed a drop of 3.4 points to 44.4, the largest decline in sentiment since March. The ESI has now fallen 6.9 points since October, led by a remarkable 8.8-point decline in confidence toward the U.S. economy.

Four of the five individual indicators fell during the two-week reading period. The largest decline was a record-setting drop in confidence toward the U.S. economy, which fell by an unprecedented 8.3 points. This dwarfs the previous record—a 6.0-point decline—set back in July, and comes as many experts fear that the new wave of COVID infections could have a significant impact on economic growth. Confidence in the labor market also experienced a substantial decline, falling 4.4 points to 34.8. Confidence in the labor market has now fallen 7.2 points over the past three readings, returning to a trough not seen since the summer. Confidence in the hot housing market also declined, with the indicator falling 3.0 points, moving the previously outlying positive indicator back in line with overall ESI trends. Confidence in making a major purchase dropped 1.5 points heading into the holiday shopping season. Lastly, confidence in personal finances was the sole indicator to rise, increasing 0.1 points to 53.7.

The decline in confidence over the past two weeks comes as COVID-19 case numbers have risen above 100,000 for over 20 consecutive days and hospitals continue to experience record-high numbers of COVID-19 patients. States across the country are beginning to reimpose restrictions to slow the spread, and there is growing concern the surge will negatively impact the economy. For the first time in over a month, the number of Americans filing for unemployment claims increased last week, and new data reveals a wide gap in unemployment between those in high and low earning industries, with the highest earners recovering significantly more quickly. This economic uncertainty may manifest in lower consumer spending during the holiday season, as polls show consumers are less likely to buy a gift for themselves and more than twice as many say they will be spending less versus more than last year. Despite rising concerns, there continues to be little movement on a federal economic stimulus package, and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said he will not extend most of the Federal Reserve’s emergency lending programs.

The ESI’s three-day moving average peaked at 49.3 on November 12, before experiencing a precipitous drop, falling to its low of 42.4 on November 21. The moving average slightly rebounded at the end of the reading, closing out at 45.7.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures. For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

Consumer economic sentiment saw its second consecutive decline in the wake of a drawn-out election and rapidly climbing COVID-19 cases. The latest reading of the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) showed a drop of 2.2 points to 47.8, most of which occurred after election day according to the three-day moving average. This ties with a drop in July as the ESI’s most significant single-reading drop since March’s 9.3-point plunge at the outset of the pandemic.

In the first reading following the win of President-elect Joe Biden, all five the ESI’s individual indicators fell during the two-week reading period. The largest decline was a 3.6-point drop in confidence in personal finances, followed closely by a 3.5-point drop in confidence in making a major purchase. Consumer sentiment toward the housing market and broader U.S. economy also fell by 1.8 and 1.2 points, respectively. The indicator that showed the smallest loss was confidence in the job market, which dropped by 0.8 points down to 39.2.

The decline in confidence over the past two weeks comes as the public turns away from election news coverage and grapples with the rise in new virus cases. Just yesterday, the U.S. saw 135,000 new coronavirus cases and 1,403 additional deaths, sparking concerns over hospital capacity and renewed efforts to slow the spread. While the latest jobs report showed signs of a continued rebound, experts remain concerned about long-lasting effects. The sizeable drop in how people are feeling about their wallets ahead of the holiday season—particularly the loss in the personal finance and major purchase indicators— lines up with the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s recent finding that personal income fell significantly even as GDP grew, adding to the sense of urgency for Congress to pass another stimulus package.

The ESI’s three-day moving average began the two-week stretch at 48.8, rising to its two-week high of 50.2 on November 2. The moving average fell to its low of 44.8 on November 8 before bouncing back to close out the reading at 47.0 points..

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures. For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

Consumer economic sentiment saw its first decline in over two months as the country experiences an uptick in new COVID-19 cases, averaging 71,000 new cases a day over the past week. The latest reading of the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) declined 1.3 points to 50.0, marking its first drop in confidence since August 18 and mirroring the month-long decline beginning in late June as the nation experienced a COVID “summer surge.”

In the last reading before Election Day, four of the ESI’s five individual indicators fell during the two-week reading period. The largest decline was a 2.8 point drop in confidence toward the housing market, falling to 52.8, its lowest reading since May. Following close behind was a 2.0 drop in the job market, which is now 3.4 points below its September high of 43.4. Confidence in making a major purchase and in personal finances also fell, declining by 1.3 and 1.0 points, respectively. Confidence in the U.S. economy was the sole indicator to rise during the reading, increasing 0.7 points to 54.8, continuing the trend of a significant divergence of confidence in the economy compared to the job market.

The decline in confidence over the past two weeks comes as the rise in new virus cases has many experts concerned the country is entering a third wave of the COVID outbreak heading into the winter months, with states in the Midwest and Mountain West bearing the brunt of the increase. Congressional deadlock over a new round of stimulus funding and rising case levels are helping drive market uncertainty and inching the nation closer to the expiration of enhanced programs for unemployed workers in December.

The ESI’s three-day moving average began the two-week stretch at 49.8, rising to its two-week high of 51.5 on October 18. The moving average fell to its low of 48.6 on October 22 before closing out the reading with a period of significant fluctuation, ending at 50.0.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures. For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

Overall economic sentiment held steady over the course of a turbulent early October. After a two-week stretch during which the President contracted COVID-19, the odds of a Democratic electoral sweep grew, and the prospects of renewed economic stimulus were revived, the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) hung on at 51.5.

Though overall economic sentiment posted no changes over the past two weeks, the ESI’s five indicators did make moves. Making the biggest gain was confidence in personal finances, which rose 2.1 points to 58.2. Also rising were confidence in making a major purchase (up 0.7 points to 46.7) and confidence in the housing market (up 0.5 points to 55.6). Weighing these improvements down were decreases in the ESI’s remaining two indicators: confidence in the overall US economy declined 1.7 points, to 54.1, while confidence in finding a new job dropped 1.4 points, to 42.0. The latest reading marks the first time these two indicators have dropped since early July.

Politics dominated the headlines over the two-week period, notably the news that President Trump contracted, and was subsequently hospitalized for, COVID-19. The period also saw the President’s Democratic challenger, Joe Biden, build out his national and swing-state lead in the polls, with heightened expectations for a Democratic sweep of the presidency and both houses of Congress. In a move that may have a direct impact on Americans’ wallets, the President reversed course and endorsed another round of economic stimulus including $1,200 checks. Heightened expectations for stimulus pushed stocks to their best week since July.

The ESI’s three-day moving average began the two-week stretch at 52.7, rising to its two-week high of 53.5 on October 2, before beginning a gradual decline. The moving average spiked briefly on October 6—the day the President signaled his support for a new round of economic stimulus—before falling to its two-week low of 48.8 on October 12, and then closing out the two-week stretch at 48.9.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures. For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

Economic sentiment continued its steady climb over the past two weeks, increasing for the third straight reading. The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) jumped up 0.8 points to 51.3, driven largely by a boost in confidence in the job market and the U.S. economy. This reading is the third highest for the U.S. economy indicator in the ESI’s history. The ESI has now risen 4.7 points since August 18.

Four of the ESI’s five indicators rose this week, with confidence in the job market rising the most with an increase of 2.5 points. The job market indicator now sits at 43.4, tying its level on March 3 and reaching levels that were sustained before the onset of the pandemic. Confidence in the U.S. economy also rose substantially, increasing 1.7 points to 55.8. Confidence in personal finances and the housing markets also rose by 1.4 and 1.1 points, respectively. Confidence in making a major purchase was the sole indicator to decline, dropping 2.6 points to 46.0. This reverses course from its surge during the last reading.

The sustained growth in confidence comes as the U.S. surpassed the grave milestone of 200,000 deaths due to COVID-19 and more than 1 million deaths have been recorded globally. Despite Democrats and Republicans unveiling new curtailed COVID-stimulus packages, the likelihood of Congressional action remains low as the Senate prepares for the Supreme Court nomination process. New data also points to a slowing of the job market as jobless claims remained steady in September at just under 900,000 a week. The job postings on Indeed for the highest-paying jobs on the site are down 24%, with low-wage and middle-wage jobs down 12% and 18%, respectively. The housing market has, however, continued to boom as U.S. existing home sales surged to their highest level in nearly 14 years, setting a new record for average home price.

The ESI’s three-day moving average began the two-week stretch at 50.6 and peaked on September 18 and 19 at 53.5, before falling to its low of 48.9 on September 21. It then had a sporadic climb to close the two-week stretch at 52.0.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures. For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

Hyperbole in politics is not new. Every presidential campaign is billed as the “most important of our lifetime,” and our politics seem to operate on a kind of reverse euphemism treadmill, where instead of trying to tone down language, we collectively ramp it up. In recent memory there was handwringing over this dynamic, and the seeming inability to dial up descriptions of the Trump era. After all, the political dial was already permanently set to 11.

And yet! There are reasons to think this fall’s presidential debates could be of particular consequence and interest beyond those of the past. There are three dynamics that point in this direction, and one big one that points the opposite way:

The pandemic and a lack of “campaigning.” While politics certainly occupies the center of our culture at the moment, it is being dominated by real world consequences and choices in the here and now. The pandemic, the associated economic crash, and the focus on racial justice are all real current political events, not theory batted back and forth through policy proposals. This dynamic focuses more attention naturally on the sitting president. The question is not: “How would a Biden Administration incrementally impact my life?” The question is: “What is the current President doing (or not doing) to dowse the burning platform I am standing on at this moment?” This dynamic, coupled with a general lack of a traditional campaign due to pandemic restrictions, means that attention has been going in different directions. This debate season will create a moment where public attention is going to snap back to the election.

Preparation changes. Behind the scenes in debate prep, there are briefing books, rehearsals, and coaching. One trick of debate preparation is to bake the prep into the ongoing campaign. Most of the messages and arguments in a debate should not be brand new to that moment. The speeches, rallies, and everyday talking points provide the practice and the ability for candidates to fine tune the case they ultimately will make on the big stage. But if none of that regular campaigning is really happening due to the pandemic, it takes away a big part of the organic preparation and increases the possibility of an unscripted moment of consequence.

Stagecraft changes. President Trump is known for his attention to stagecraft, but these debates will not have an audience to perform for. Social distancing guidelines will presumably prohibit some of the “lurking” moments of the past. Canned one-liners that work in an audience setting could come off as just plain awkward, and the campaigns will have to calibrate for this dynamic.

On the other side of why these debates just might not be a game changer is one big dynamic that has been true all year:

Fundamental stability of the race. The reality is that Vice President Biden has had a pretty stable lead of between four and eight points throughout this year. Throughout all the tumult of 2020, this fundamental dynamic has not changed. As we saw in 2016, anything can happen, but in retrospect, this presidential race may end up looking like a much more predictable affair than it feels like at the moment.