After Autumn Tumble, Economic Sentiment Makes Slight Recovery
Overall economic sentiment recovered slightly after six consecutive weeks of decline. During the past two-week stretch marked by optimism about a COVID-19 vaccine, the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) inched upwards 1.3 points to 45.7
There was contradicting movement among the ESI’s five indicators over the past two weeks. Making the biggest gain was confidence in making a major purchase, which rose 4.5 points to 44.9 — the second largest increase over the past year. Also rising were confidence in the overall U.S. economy (up 1.6 points to 46.9) and confidence in finding a new job (up 1.2 points to 36.0). Weighing these improvements down were decreases in the ESI’s other two indicators: confidence in personal finances dropped 0.9 points to 52.8, while confidence in the housing market declined 0.4 points to 47.6.
COVID-19 vaccine news continued to dominate the headlines over the past two weeks, as the U.S. prepares to administer the vaccine in the coming days and the U.K. began injections of the Pfizer vaccine. The good vaccine news comes as the U.S. passed 15 million positive cases of COVID-19, with hospitals in some regions struggling to cope with overcapacity. Meanwhile, stocks hit new highs last Friday even as November jobs data was less positive than expected and the prospect and size of a renewed stimulus bill remains uncertain.
The ESI’s three-day moving average began the two-week period at 46.0 on November 25, gradually declining to its two-week low of 43.6 on December 1. The moving average then moved upwards, peaking at 47.3 on December 6, before closing out the two-week stretch at 45.2 on December 8.
About the Index
The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures. For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.
CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.