HPS Analysis

ESI: With No End In Sight To COVID-19, Economic Sentiment Continues to Decline With Confidence In Overall U.S. Economy Reaching Historic Low

Overall consumer economic sentiment dropped 1.3 points to 41.5, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI), the second-lowest recording in ESI history behind March 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic began. This week’s decline was driven by falling confidence in all five ESI indicators, including confidence in the overall U.S. economy, which hit its lowest reading ever.

All five of the ESI’s indicators fell over the past two weeks. Confidence in the overall U.S. economy dropped the most, falling 1.6 points to a historic low of 35.5 as consumers’ outlook on the next six months soured. Fatigue of the relentless pandemic, as well as consumer fears of rising energy pricesstagflation, and ongoing supply chain disruptions, are all weighing heavily on the economy. The ESI’s overall downward slump was also driven by declines in every other indicator:

– Confidence in finding a new job sank 1.5 points to 55.9

– Confidence in making a major purchase declined 1.3 points to 31.3

– Confidence in personal finances dropped 0.4 points to 54.3

– Confidence in the housing market fell 1.3 points to 30.7

The ESI’s three-day moving average began the period at its high of 43.8 on September 29. It wavered over the next two weeks while declining overall, reaching its low of 40.2 on October 2 and closing at 42.9 on October 12.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures. For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

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