HPS Analysis

ESI: Economic Sentiment Unchanged As Consumers Digest Mixed Economic Signals

Overall economic sentiment was unchanged over the past two weeks, as consumers digested an array of differing economic indicators. The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) remained at 42.5.

While overall economic sentiment remained the same since last period, the ESI’s five constituent indicators did make moves. Confidence in personal finances rose 2.1 points to 57.4. Meanwhile, confidence in the overall U.S. economy declined 1.3 points to 36.7.

Consumers are seeing mixed economic signals and raising questions surrounding the impact inflation and the Delta variant. Consumer spending is still outpacing pre-pandemic levels: JPMorgan Chase debit and credit card spending, for example, is currently 18-19% higher than 2019 levels. Yet the economy also faces a variety of potential headwinds; some employees are seeing wage increases get eaten up by inflation, while many businesses are reworking Labor Day return-to-work plans because of Delta variant fears. Here is how the ESI’s other indicators moved:

– Confidence in finding a new job declined 0.8 points to 56.2

– Confidence in making a major purchase declined 0.1 points to 31.6

– Confidence in the housing market rose 0.2 points to 30.6

The ESI’s three-day moving average began at 43.4 on September 1, remaining largely flat before bottoming out at 41.8 on September 7. The moving average then rose over the second week and closed out at its high of 43.7 on September 14.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures. For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

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