HPS Analysis

ESI: Economic Sentiment Regresses After Six Weeks Of Steady Growth

Economic sentiment dropped over the past two weeks, ending a rally that began in late November of last year. The HPS-Civic Science Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) fell 0.9 points to 41.1.

Four of the ESI’s five indicators fell over the past two weeks. The greatest decrease was in confidence in making a major purchase, which dropped 2.6 points to 26.6, followed by a 1.5 point drop to 38.8 in confidence in the overall U.S. economy. Though further research appears to confirm that the Omicron variant is less likely to result in serious health complications than previous COVID-19 strains, its community spread has left many businesses shorthanded, as infected employees are forced to stay home and call in sick. The Labor Department also revealed a 7% annual rate of inflation—the highest since 1982, and while unemployment is low, December payrolls only increased by 199,000, falling well short of expectations. Here is how the ESI’s other indicators moved over the past two weeks:

– Confidence in new jobs rose 0.5 points to 54.9.

– Confidence in personal finances dropped 0.4 points to 57.5.

– Confidence in new home purchases dropped 0.9 points to 27.9.

The ESI’s three-day moving average began this two-week stretch at 42.1 on January 5. It then rose slightly, reaching a zenith at 43.6 on January 9 before dropping precipitously to 38 on January 15. The moving average recovered towards the end of the period, closing out the session on January 18 at 41.4.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures. For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

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