HPS Analysis

ESI: Economic Sentiment Recovers Slightly

Economic sentiment inched up over the past two weeks, on the heels of the passage of President Biden’s signature infrastructure deal in the House of Representatives. The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) rose 0.9 points to 41.0, only the second gain since early August. The ESI’s three-day moving average closed out on a four-day, 4.5-point jump following the passage of the infrastructure package.

Driving this reading’s increase was a substantial recovery in confidence in making a major purchase, which rose 3.6 points to 28.7. The last two weeks saw the passage of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, clearing a logjam in President Biden’s agenda and releasing $550 billion in new federal investment. Yet optimism surrounding the recovery from COVID-19 continues to be tampered by supply chain and inflation concerns. On November 10, the day after this ESI period ended, the Labor Department reported that consumer prices skyrocketed in October, jumping 6.2% in the largest inflation surge in over 30 years. Here is how the ESI’s other indicators moved:

– Confidence in personal finances rose 1.2 points to 55.5

– Confidence in the housing market rose 0.3 points to 30.1

– Confidence in the overall U.S. economy dropped 0.4 points to 34.2

– Confidence in the job market dropped 0.2 points to 56.3

The ESI’s three-day moving average began the period sluggishly, dropping from 39.6 on October 27 to its period low of 38.2 on October 28. The moving average recovered towards the middle of the period, then dropped again before closing out on a surge following the passage of the infrastructure bill, ending the period at its high of 42.9 on November 9.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures. For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

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