ESI: Economic Sentiment Recovers Slightly, Driven By Confidence In Personal Finances
Economic sentiment improved slightly over the past two weeks, on the heels of a nearly five point decrease over the previous two weeks. The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) rose 0.8 points to 30.4, largely driven by increases to confidence in personal finances and in the overall U.S. economy.
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The ESI continues to be buoyed by how consumers feel about their own situation compared to the broader economy—confidence in personal finances rose 3.9 points to 46.4.
— Confidence in the overall U.S. economy rose 2.8 points to 28.1.
— Confidence in buying a new home rose 0.4 points to 18.6.
— Confidence in making a major purchase fell 0.9 points to 16.5.
But confidence in finding a new job fell 2.2 points to 42.3. Continuing unemployment claims have risen for three straight weeks. And the four-week average of new jobless claims rose to 223,500—the highest since late January.
Consumers are showing signs that they’re adapting to the growth in food and fuel prices. Over 15% of US adults said they opted for lower-priced alternatives for groceries in May, up more than 3 percentage points compared to April.
And the core price index, which measures prices outside of the volatile food and fuel sectors, climbed at a rate of 4.7% over the past 12 months, down from the prior reading of 4.9%.
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The ESI’s three-day moving average began this two-week stretch at 28.2 on Wednesday, June 22. It hit a low of 28.1 on Saturday, June 25 before hitting the two-week high of 32.4 on Thursday, June 30. The moving average trended slightly downwards for the rest of the two weeks before a slight uptick over the holiday weekend to close out the session at 31.4.
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The next release of the ESI will be Wednesday, July 20, 2022.