HPS Analysis

ESI: Economic Sentiment Rebounds After Two-Month Slide

Economic sentiment rebounded over the last two weeks, ending a slide that lasted from the end of April to the end of June. The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) jumped 1.5 points on the back of strong gains in confidence in making a major purchase and confidence in the housing market—the same indicators that had been driving the recent drop in economic sentiment.

This reading represents a slight reversal of a months-long divergence between confidence in the job market on the one hand and confidence in the housing market and making a major purchase on the other. Confidence in the housing market rose 3.8 points (to 32.9; representing this indicator’s first positive move since March) while confidence in making a major purchase rose 4.3 points (to 39.2; the first positive move since April). The changes come as multiple states increased their minimum wage on July 1, and employees are benefitting from the fastest wage growth since the 1980s.

– Confidence in personal finances rose 3.8 points to 60.1, the highest level in over a year.

– Confidence in the job market dropped 3.1 points to 58.4 but remains near all-time highs.

– Confidence in the overall U.S. economy dropped 1.3 points to 48.4.

The three-day moving average began on June 23 at 45.9, slowly dropping to its two-week low of 44.5 on June 28. The moving average then rose rapidly, peaking at 52.2 on July 3 before closing out the period at 45.8 on July 6.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures. For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

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