HPS Analysis

ESI: Economic Sentiment Continues Its Slow Rise

Consumer sentiment continued to inch upward over the past two weeks, with the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) increasing 0.5 points to 41.5, its highest position in two months.

The increase in economic sentiment is due to robust gains in confidence in the job market and the overall U.S. economy. In the middle of the ESI’s reporting period, the Federal Reserve announced its intention to raise short-term bond rates three times next year to counteract inflation. Chairman Powell acknowledged that while the labor market hasn’t yet recovered to full employment, the job market continues to run hot. The ESI measured that over the past two weeks, consumer confidence in the job market increased 2.5 points to 56.8—the highest level in three months, and confidence in the overall U.S. economy shot up similarly, rising 2.4 points to a four-month high of 38.6. The other three ESI indicators fell slightly:

– Confidence in making a major purchase fell 0.8 points to 28.7

– Confidence in finding a new job Confidence in personal finances fell 0.3 points to 55.1

– Confidence in the housing market fell 1.2 points to 28.4

The ESI’s three-day moving average began at its period low of 39.7 on December 8 and held a generally upward trajectory for most of the period. It reached its highest point of 42.4 on December 15 and again on December 17 before declining at the end of the period and closing out at 40.5 on December 21.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures. For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

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