HPS Analysis

ESI: Economic Sentiment Claws Back Some Lost Ground

Economic sentiment ticked upward over the past two weeks, despite the Omicron variant emergence and turbulence in the stock market. The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) gained 0.5 points to reach 41.0, matching its position from four weeks ago. 

The ESI’s rise comes on the back of strong gains from two indicators: Confidence in personal finances jumped 2.3 points to 55.4, while confidence in the housing market rose 2.2 points to 29.6. The past two weeks witnessed the first reported case of the new Omicron variant of COVID-19 in the U.S., which, in conjunction with a mixed November jobs report, sent U.S. equities into a series of down-and-up jolts. New indicators also showed home prices decelerating their appreciation for the first time in two years. Here is how the ESI’s other indicators moved:

– Confidence in making a major purchase rose 1.6 points to 29.5

– Confidence in finding a new job dropped 1.8 points to 54.3

– Confidence in the overall U.S. economy dropped 1.9 points to 36.2

The ESI’s three-day moving average began at 42.0 on November 24. After a brief dip, it reached its two-week high of 43.0 on November 28, remaining around that level before quickly dropping to its two-week low of 39.2 on December 4. It closed the session on December 7 at 40.5.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures. For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

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