HPS Analysis

ESI: Despite Record-Breaking Confidence In Job Market, Consumers Are Reluctant To Spend

Economic sentiment fell for the fourth straight reading over the last two weeks, as the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) dropped 1.6 points to 46.3. A new record high for confidence in the job market was not enough to outweigh steep declines in confidence in making a major purchase and confidence in the housing market, with the latter reaching a new record low.

This reading reflects a continued divergence between confidence in the job market on the one hand and confidence in the housing market on the other. Confidence in the job market rose 2.8 points to 61.5 (the 10th increase over the past 11 readings), while confidence in finding a new home dropped 3.4 points to 29.1 (the seventh straight decline). Consumers find themselves in an economy featuring record-high numbers of open jobs but also historically expensive homes and rising inflation fears. The ESI’s other three indicators also declined:

– Confidence in making a major purchase dropped 4.4 points to 34.9, the lowest point since April 2020

– Confidence in the overall U.S. economy declined 2.3 points to 49.7.

– Confidence in personal finances dipped 0.5 points to 56.3.

The three-day moving average began on May 26 at 47.1, rising to its peak of 48.3 on June 13. It reached its two-week low of 43.5 on June 16, before closing the period at 46.2 on June 22.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures. For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

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