HPS Analysis

ESI: A Speckle Of Relief For Economic Sentiment

Economic sentiment experienced its first positive movement since early August, as the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) eked out a 0.3 gain, after an uptick in the ESI’s three-day moving average since September 25. Leading the charge were jumps in confidence in the housing market and finding a new job.

Four of the ESI’s five indicators rose over the past two weeks. Confidence in the housing market rebounded slightly from its longstanding slide, rising 1.4 points to 32.0. The housing market showed signs of slowing in recent weeks as home-price growth eased. In the broader economy, there are indications that recent inflation may persist longer than expected, and unemployment numbers continue to be mixed. The ongoing congressional debates over President Biden’s agenda, the federal budget, and raising the debt ceiling may also weigh more heavily on consumers’ minds in coming readings. Here’s how the ESI’s other indicators moved:

– Confidence in finding a new job rose 1.2 points to 57.4

– Confidence in making a major purchase rose 1.0 point to 32.6

– Confidence in the overall U.S. economy rose 0.4 points to 37.1

– Confidence in personal finances dropped 2.7 points to 54.7

The ESI’s three-day moving average began the two-week stretch at 43.8 on September 15, peaking the next day at 45.4. The moving average then declined, bottoming out at 39.3 on September 25 before quickly recovering and closing at 44.0 on September 28.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures. For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

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