HPS Analysis

ESI: 2022 Begins With Continued Upward Push In Economic Sentiment

Consumer sentiment continued to inch upward over the past two weeks, wEconomic sentiment rose again over the past few weeks, the latest positive development in a rally that began in late November of last year. The HPS-Civic Science Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) rose 0.5 points to 42.0.

Four of the ESI’s five indicators rose over the past two weeks. Rising the most was confidence in personal finances, which rose 2.8 points to 57.9, followed by confidence in the overall U.S. economy, which rose 1.7 points to 40.3. Omicron news dominated the headlines over the past two weeks, generating mixed economic messages. Covid-related hospitalizations rose sharply in cities including New York and a growing list of companies announced they are pushing back plans for in-person work, raising concerns of a further delay in a return to “normal” economic activity. At the same time, however, widely-reported research indicated that Omicron is less likely than previous Covid strains to lead to health complications, particularly amongst vaccinated individuals. Here is how the ESI’s other indicators moved over the past two weeks:

– Confidence in the housing market rose 0.4 points to 28.8

– Confidence in making a major purchase rose 0.1 points to 28.8

– Confidence in finding a new job dropped 2.4 points to 54.4

The ESI’s three-day moving average began at its period low of 39.7 on The ESI’s three-day moving average began this two-week stretch at 41.1 on December 22. It then rose following the Christmas holiday before quickly dropping to its session low of 40.9 on December 31. The moving average rose to begin the new year, reaching its two-week high of 43.7 on January 3 before closing out the session on January 4 at 41.5.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures. For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

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