ESI: Economic Sentiment Nudges Upward
Economic sentiment eked out a positive gain over the past two weeks, amid questions surrounding inflation, vaccination rates, and new mask mandates. The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) added 0.2 points, driven mostly by a recovery in sentiment towards making a major purchase.
The ESI’s five indicators diverged substantially over the past two weeks. Making the biggest positive jump was confidence in making a major purchase, which rose 3.3 points to 36.3. The biggest decline, meanwhile, came in confidence in personal finances, which dropped 1.9 points to 55.6. American workers are benefitting from higher wages as the job market remains tight, yet the past few weeks raised new questions surrounding the impact of the COVID-19 Delta variant; companies including Apple and Google announced plans to push back return-to-work dates, while cities including Washington, DC reintroduced indoor mask mandates. The ESI’s other indicators made the following moves:
– Confidence in the overall U.S. economy rose 0.7 points to 46.6.
– Confidence in the housing market remained unchanged at 29.0.
– Confidence in finding a new job dropped 0.9 points to 58.6.
The ESI’s three day rolling average began at 42.7 on July 21, dropping quickly to its two-week low of 41.8 on July 22. It then gradually rose, reaching its two-week high of 46.6 on July 27, before dropping, recovering again, and closing out the two-week stretch at 44.6 on August 3.
About the Index
The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures. For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.
CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.