HPS Analysis

ESI: Economic Sentiment Hits New Record Low

Economic sentiment continued to fall over the past two weeks amid concerns about inflation and the economic impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) dropped 1.8 points to 36.3, its lowest recorded reading since it began measuring economic sentiment in 2013.

All five ESI indicators fell for the second consecutive reading, with three indicators reaching their all-time lows:

– Confidence in the overall U.S. economy dropped 2.7 points to 31.6

– Confidence in making a major purchase fell 2.5 points to 21.3

– Confidence in purchasing a new home fell 0.6 points to 24.6

The greatest decrease was in confidence in the overall U.S. economy, which Confidence in personal finances experienced the biggest drop, falling 2.9 points to 52.3, while confidence in finding a new job fell 0.5 points to 51.6.

The Ukraine-Russia conflict continues to dominate headlines, as Western-imposed sanctions on Putin’s regime threaten to further disrupt supply chains and increase global commodity prices. Russia accounts for 14% of coal, 7.5% of iron and steel, 28% of nickel, and 10% of aluminum worldwide exports. President Biden announced the United States will cut off oil imports from Russia, generating concerns over the cost of energy and increased inflationary pressure.

The ESI’s three-day moving average began this two-week stretch at 39.6 on The ESI’s three-day moving average began this two-week stretch at 38.7 on March 2. It hit its two-week low of 33.5 on March 13 and closed the session at 36.1 on March 15.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures. For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

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